Helping Families One Home at a Time

March 2002

Moving to Portland Newsletter

Active residential listings in the area would last only 6.4 months with the current rate of salesrepresenting a significantly lower inventory than for Januarys past.  

Affordability 
At the end of the 4th quarter of 2001, the home affordability index was 130.   Affordability takes into account Decembers median-priced home ($167,500) and the 2001 family median income ($55,900) per HUD. With a 20% down payment and available interest rates, the family would have 30% more income than necessary.

A Closer Look at 2001
New Construction:  Listings sold under the descriptions of new, proposed, or under construction totaled 4,251 for 2001. This is up by 11.8% from the 3,801 reported in 2000. The average sales price of such listings depreciated 2.2%from $230,400 to $225,300.

2002 Appreciation
Viewing the table below for the first month of 2002, appreciation continued for homes in north, northeast, and southeast Portland.  These are the lower priced areas.  Homes in the higher priced areas (West Portland and Lake Oswego/West Linn) showed continued reduction just as they did in 2001.

Area

Average
Sales
Price

Percent
Appreciated **See note

North

9.3%

Northeast

6.9%

**Neighborhood

Average
Sales
Price 2001

Average
Sales Price

Northeast

   Alameda

   Beaumont-Wilshire

   Irvington

   Laurelhurst

(D) $147
(C,T) $140

**Please bear in mind that neighborhood values are, at best, good estimates.  We extract the data from the Regional Multiple Listing System (RMLS) files, tweak the data, and then do the calculations.  The problem has to do with the boundaries; historical versus neighborhood associations.  Some real estate firms (each firm inputs the data for their particular listing, transaction) use the historical boundaries and some use the current neighborhood associations' boundary.  We use the boundaries established by the Office of Neighborhood Involvement (ONI).  Also, beware that some neighborhoods have only a few sales in a given year so averages tend to fluctuate widely between years.

***For detailed pricing, visit the "Neighborhood Profiles" section of the Website:   Northeast, Southeast,  Downtown, West Hills and Southwest.

The median sales price of existing homes in the United States was $148,000 in 2001.  Here are sales figures, not seasonally adjusted, for Western cities during the fourth quarter of 2001.

• San Francisco Bay area - $299,500

• Los Angeles area - $254,300

• Seattle - $243,700

• Denver - $215,500

• Portland - 171,500

• Las Vegas - $152,300

• Phoenix - $138,800

• Boise - $131,300

The largest percentage change from the fourth quarter of 2000 was the Los Angeles area with a 12.6 percent increase.  Portland was the lowest with 1.2 percent.

The average price for residential homes in the Portland metro area for 2001 was $201,000.  The median price for existing homes was $172,500 which increased by 1.2 percent over 2000.

During the last week of February 2002, Portland area lenders and mortgage brokers were offering rates of 6.5% on 30-year fixed mortgages with one point.  Many of the local brokers have APR under 6.5 percent.  Washington Mutual Bank (one of the area's largest lenders) was offering 6.88 percent (30-year FRM) with zero points on February 27th. This is an APR of 7.0 percent.

Local Mortgage Brokers  To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate.  To talk with a mortgage broker, consider: 

• Associated Mortgage Group   They are licensed in both Oregon and Washington.    Telephone:  (503) 221-0064  Fax:  (503) 221-0396.  Mr. Dave Jolivette is the contact.
• Stevens Mortgage  Telephone: (503) 670-0535  Fax: (503) 670-0481.   Mr. David Dishman is the contact.

You may want to read our Privacy Policy with regard to recommendations.

U.S. home resales in January rose 16.2 percent to a record 6.04 million rate, the largest increase and level of homes sold on record.  The National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah attributed the brisk pace of sales to a combination of factors, including attractive mortgage rates, mild weather, and improving consumer confidence.

Construction of new homes and apartments rose 6.3 percent in January 2002 to the highest level in almost two years, fresh evidence that the housing market is thriving while much of the economy slumps. The Commerce Department reported that builders broke ground in January on 1.68 million units, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

The Portland-Vancouver area's unemployment rate climbed to 8.6 percent in January 2002.  The highest since March 1984.  Employment stood at 940,000 workers in January, down 20,2000 from December.  Portland's economy has been in a slide since mid-2001.  Almost every major industry has retrenched, with heavy and high-tech manufacturing posting the most aggressive pullbacks.

The state of Oregon reported an unemployment rate of 8 percent. This is an increase of two-tenths of a percentage point increase from the previous month's revised figure.  Many rural areas in Oregon have experienced rates over 9 percent.

Teens affect rates One of the reasons unemployment rates typically lag behind other indicators is the behavior of America's youth.  During recessions, teenagers who have trouble finding jobs often stop looking altogether and go back to high school or college.  The Labor Department defines them as having dropped out of the work force and doesn't count them among the ranks of unemployed.  That keeps the unemployment rate from going as high.  When recoveries take hold, teenagers are lured back into the work force to look for jobs.  The Labor Department officially counts them as unemployed until they find work, which can take time and keep the unemployment rate up.

Meanwhile the governor and state legislators wrangle over how to fix a $845 million budget shortfall.  The two-year Oregon budget is approximately 12.3 billion dollars.  The Democratic governor wants to raise taxes (tobacco, beer, wine) and postpone a income tax reduction that is scheduled to go into effect this year. The Republican-controlled legislature wants to cut spending and have the planned tax reduction go into effect this year.

5-DAY FORECAST for February 26, 2002
Tuesday		Wednesday		Thursday		Friday		Saturday
Sunshine		Partly sunny		Several hours of sun		Clouds and sun		Clouds and sun
Hi 52° F, 11° C		Hi 54° F, 12° C		Hi 54° F, 12° C		Hi 54° F, 12° C		Hi 56° F, 13° C
Lo 32° F, 0° C		Lo 32° F, 0° C		Lo 36° F, 2° C		Lo 38° F, 3° C		Lo 40° F, 4° C

Put away the Goretex and rubber boots and break out the light Polartec. When the above 5-day weather forecast appears in the back page of the "Business Section" of the local paper, you can bet that the jet stream has gone "North" and we're in for some sun and dry weather.   Predicting Portland winter weather is easy.  Just find out where the jet stream is coming from - North or South - and then make the forecast.

In the Northern Hemisphere the wintertime jet stream is stronger than in summer.  November through March is the wet season in Oregon.  Pacific storm systems frequently form or intensify in the Gulf of Alaska.  As these systems move onshore, precipitation is often heavy along "rainbands" that mark the boundaries between the cool moist air from the North Pacific and warmer drier air to the south and east.  So when the jet stream comes from the north, the drier air from the south doesn't come close enough to the North Pacific air to cause storms.