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April 2002
Moving to Portland Newsletter

by Susan Marthens

Fewer new listings and more closed sales make for a low inventory measure this month. Our 9,818 active residential listings would last 6.1 months at the current rate of sales.

Year-To-Date Trends
The number of closed sales reported since the year began is 12.8% percent higher than those reported for the first two months of 2001.  Other categories, however, do not exhibit such growth. New listings are down 11.1% and pending sales are down 9.3%. On the positive side, average market time is decreasing as welldropping 8 days from last years average of 84.

Appreciation
Comparing the full twelve months ending February 2002 to those ending February 2001, the Portland metro areas average sales price has appreciated 1.2% ($201,700 v. $199,300). Median sales price grew as well, up 1.8%($170,000 v. $167,000)

Pending Sales
Although we don't report on this number (see below table), the percent of pending sales (agreements have been signed and just waiting for the closing) have decreased substantially for the first two months of 2002 compared to the same period in 2001.  Just about all areas are reporting double-digit reductions - only Northwest Washington County and the Mt. Hood area have increased.  This is an indication that more people are "staying put" and either not purchasing a home or not trading up.  It is also a sign of the economics in the Portland area.  With unemployment just over eight (8) percent, money is in short supply for many.

Area

Average
Sales
Price

Percent
Appreciated **See note

North

8.9%

Northeast

6.8%

**Neighborhood

Average
Sales
Price 2001

Average
Sales Price

Northeast

   Alameda

   Beaumont-Wilshire

   Irvington

   Laurelhurst

(D) $147
(C,T) $140

**Please bear in mind that neighborhood values are, at best, good estimates.  We extract the data from the Regional Multiple Listing System (RMLS) files, tweak the data, and then do the calculations.  The problem has to do with the boundaries; historical versus neighborhood associations.  Some real estate firms (each firm inputs the data for their particular listing, transaction) use the historical boundaries and some use the current neighborhood associations' boundary.  We use the boundaries established by the Office of Neighborhood Involvement (ONI).  Also, beware that some neighborhoods have only a few sales in a given year so averages tend to fluctuate widely between years.

***For detailed pricing, visit the "Neighborhood Profiles" section of the Website:   Northeast, Southeast,  Downtown, West Hills and Southwest.

The ACCRA Cost of Living Index measures prices levels for consumer goods and services in participating areas.  Here are fourth-quarter figures for Western cities.  The average for all cities is 100.

• San Francisco Bay area -177.9

• Los Angeles area 142.2

• Seattle -

• Denver - 108.6

• Las Vegas - 107.0

• Portland - 104.1

• Phoenix - 100.8

• Boise - 100.6

• Salt Lake City - 99.6

The average price for residential homes in the Portland metro area for 2001 was $201,000.  The median price for existing homes was $172,500 which increased by 1.2 percent over 2000.

The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 6.69 percent, with an average 0.7 point, also higher than last week's average of 6.65 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.46 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.11 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week's average of 5.11 percent. This time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 6.19 percent.

During the last week of March 2002, Portland area lenders and mortgage brokers were offering rates of 6.25% on 30-year fixed mortgages with 3.25 points.  The range of APRs; 6.56-7.58 percent.  Washington Mutual Bank (one of the area's largest lenders) was offering 7.13 percent (30-year FRM) with zero points on March 28th. This is an APR of 7.25 percent.  Bank of America was a bit lower with 7.00 (1.5 points) and an APR of 7.18.  Well Fargo and Key Bank were slightly higher.

Local Mortgage Brokers  To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate.  To talk with a mortgage broker, consider: 

• Associated Mortgage Group   They are licensed in both Oregon and Washington.    Telephone:  (503) 221-0064  Fax:  (503) 221-0396.  Mr. Dave Jolivette is the contact.
• Stevens Mortgage  Telephone: (503) 670-0535  Fax: (503) 670-0481.   Mr. David Dishman is the contact.

You may want to read our Privacy Policy with regard to recommendations.

Home Sales
Sales of newly built single-family homes rose 5.3 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 875,000 units, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. The increase comes on the heels of a shortfall in January that followed exceptionally strong sales at the end of 2001.

Total new home sales in 2002 should nearly equal 2001's record-setting sales of 906,000 units, according to The National Association of Home Builders.

Regional home sales patterns have been fluctuating in recent months. The Northeast and Midwest reported declines of 10.1 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, while the South and West posted gains of 9.9 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively, in February.

The inventory of new homes rose 1 percent in February to 313,000 units while the supply of homes for sale at the current rate of sales dropped slightly from 4.5 to 4.3 months.

Near-record salmon runs have made being a Columbia River commercial fisherman possible again, following years of decline after a fishing heyday that brought wealth to these parts. This year's return of spring chinook is forecast to be the second-highest since Bonneville Dam was built in 1938. Coho salmon and steelhead (not a true salmon since they spawn numerous times during their life) have also increased dramatically.

No one knows exactly why the fish population has increased, but most experts point to the increased rainfall the last few years.  Another factor is that smelt, a mainstay of the salmon diet, have returned to the Columbia.  New fishing regulations for both sport and commercial fisherman undoubtedly have helped.

As important as the profuse returns, however, is a new fishing technique called tangle-netting used by commercial fisherman. The lower Columbia fishing fleet this year abandoned its namesake gill-nets for tangle-nets, which capture fish alive.

Gill-nets killed most everything, because fish suffocated after being snagged by the gills. Tangle-nets have a smaller mesh size, and so the chinook are caught when their mouths or teeth become entangled; they never quite make it through enough to be choked at the gills.

The result is key to the fishery. For the first time, the lower Columbia commercial fleet keeps only hatchery-born fish, identifiable because of a clipped adipose fin. Fish born in the wild, including imperiled stocks listed under the Endangered Species Act, are released to continue their journey upriver, toward spawning grounds. It's more work for the fisherman, who must take the time to differentiate between hatchery and wild fish and keep only the hatchery catch.

Tanks Required New rules now require all boats be equipped with a tank that holds wild chinook in a stream of fast moving water while they recover from the trauma of being caught. The moving water delivers lots of oxygen, giving the fish a sort of CPR.

The new nets and recovery boxes are not popular with all fishermen. No one likes throwing back a wild 30-pound chinook, worth $120 at $4 a pound dockside, just because it has an adipose fin and didn't come from a hatchery.  

Fleet Shrinks The commercial fishery is a shell of what it was. Just 20 years ago, about 1,300 of the distinctive low-slung gill-net boats plied the lower Columbia. Now that fleet is less than 300. Logging, the other traditional mainstay of the lower river economy, also has declined.

The fleet is allowed to catch 19,500 spring chinook this year, 5 percent of the projected run of about 400,000. That's the largest allowed harvest since spring chinook were added to the endangered species list in 1992. Last year's harvest was just 5,400 fish, and no spring chinook harvest whatsoever was allowed the year before that.

The price is good because Columbia River spring chinook have a high-oil content and excellent flavor. They enter the river after being at sea in prime, fattened condition for an arduous, weight-robbing journey to spawning grounds. The Columbia springer, the salmon equivalent of "the finest of wines", is sold in restaurants from Seattle to San Francisco.  This is despite the fact they cost three times or more than farm-raised salmon.

Located in the historic Pearl District's Brewery Blocks Project, the 34,000 square-foot store occupies the ground floor of a "recycled" auto garage at 1210 NW Couch Street, between NW Burnside and Couch and 12th and 13th avenues. This is one of Whole Foods larger stores in their 128-store chain. The store features a 180-space underground parking area where shoppers can be assisted picking up their groceries under cover.

Whole Foods Market is a unique blend of old-fashioned greengrocer, organic farmer's market, European pastry shop, custom butcher and seafood shop, rotisserie grill, healthful deli, first-class wine merchant, nutrition and body care center, full-service market and neighborhood cafe.

You will notice the difference the minute you walk into Whole Foods Market. Fresh flowers and the smell of baked goods will greet the customers at the door. A 30-foot seafood counter with six seafood soups ready to sip, an aged beef case and a cheese bar are just some of the features that offer a vast selection.  House wares, a deli, a coffee bar, health care and nutrition products and an extensive wine department all part of the experience.

Portland has two chains of similar stores that have been established for a number of years;  Nature's Fresh (division of Wild Oats ) with seven stores in the Portland metro area and New Seasons Market with four stores.  Whole Foods has a number of stores in California (their largest market), and this is their first entry into the Portland area (they have one store in Seattle).

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(503) 297-1033

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