August 2002

Moving to Portland Newsletter

by Susan Marthens

Portland Home Market

June 2002 Residential Highlights

Portland metro area's inventory increased slightly from May's low.  June's ending number of active residential listings was 10,711.  With June's rate of sales, that amount would last 4.4 months.  Comparing numbers from June 2002 to those of 2001, new listings fell by 2.9% and closed sales fell by 5.9%.  While all this was going on, the area's average sales price hit a new one-month high of $219,600.

Year-to-Date Trends

If you compare January through June 2002 to January through June 2001, prices and the number of closed sales have risen.  New listings and pending sales have fallen, however, by 3.4% and 3.2% respectively.

Second Quarter Report

Focusing on a comparison of 2002's second quarter to the second quarter of 2001, some measures are up and some are down.  Closed sales are up 0.8%.  Pending sales are up 1.9%.  Two measures to fall are new listings, down 2.1% and average market time.  Market time shows a significant downward trend, dropping from 73 days to 66 days (-9.6%), it can only represent a trend rather than precise statistics.

Appreciation

To examine appreciation, we compare average and median sales price from the last 12 months to that for the 12 immediately prior.  Both are up, average growing to $205,000 from $200,000 (2.5%); median to $172,000 from $168,900 (1.8%).

Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area

Area

Average
Sales
Price

Percent
Appreciated
 **See note

North

9.6%

Northeast

7.6%

Cost of Residential Homes by Portland Neighborhood

**Neighborhood

***Portland Neighborhoods
(D = Detached single family; C = Condo; T = Townhome; A = All to include "D", "C", "T")

Northeast

   Alameda

   Beaumont-Wilshire

   Irvington

   Laurelhurst

(D) $147
(C,T) $140

**Please bear in mind that neighborhood values are, at best, good estimates.  We extract the data from the Regional Multiple Listing System (RMLS) files, tweak the data, and then do the calculations.  The problem has to do with the boundaries; historical versus neighborhood associations.  Some real estate firms (each firm inputs the data for their particular listing, transaction) use the historical boundaries and some use the current neighborhood associations' boundary.  We use the boundaries established by the Office of Neighborhood Involvement (ONI).  Also, beware that some neighborhoods have only a few sales in a given year so averages tend to fluctuate widely between years.

***For detailed pricing, visit the "Neighborhood Profiles" section of the Website:   Northeast, Southeast,  Downtown, West Hills and Southwest.

Long-Term Mortgage Rates Reach Six Months Low

July 18, 2002 

In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.49 percent, with an average 0.6 point, for the week ending July 19, 2002, down from 6.54 percent last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.08 percent.

The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 5.93 percent, with an average 0.5 point, down from last week's average of 6.00 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.65 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.50 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, down from last week's average of 4.66 percent. This time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 5.62 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.

"Long-term interest rates were little changed headed into Fed Chairman Greenspan's testimonies to Congress this week. On Monday, the market priced in a 25 percent chance that the Fed would lower interest rates at the August FOMC meeting, owing to the continued decline in the stock market. This allowed interest rates for 1-year ARMs to decline a bit," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.

"Although Chairman Greenspan's testimony implied no change in monetary policy, he saw no clear signs of a housing slowdown. For instance, even though housing starts fell slightly in June to an annual pace of 1.67 million units, this was still above last year's total; and housing permits increased for the third consecutive month," Nothaft added."

Portland Area Mortgage Rates

As of early August 2002, Portland area lenders and mortgage brokers were offering APR 5.82% to 6.80% on 30-year fixed mortgages. Washington Mutual Bank (one of the area's largest lenders) was offering 6.50 percent (30-year FRM) with zero points (APR of 6.62 percent). Wells Fargo Bank interest rate was 6.50 (one points) with an APR of 6.81.

Portland Area Mortgage Brokers

To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate.  To talk with a mortgage broker, consider: 

• Associated Mortgage Group   They are licensed in both Oregon and Washington.    Telephone:  (503) 221-0064  Fax:  (503) 221-0396.  Mr. Dave Jolivette is the contact.
• Stevens Mortgage  Telephone: (503) 670-0535  Fax: (503) 670-0481.   Mr. David Dishman is the contact.

You may want to read our Privacy Policy with regard to recommendations.

New Home Sales Hit Record Pace in June

Sales of new homes in the US hit a record in June with the rate of annual purchases topping one million units for the first as home buyers took advantage of persistently low interest rates.  The Commerce Department said that sales in the Midwest and the West regions both advanced by 3.8 percent, with the West setting a record at a 302,000 annual sales rate

Portland and Kids

City Commissioner Dan Saltzman

Saltzman, elected to a second term in May, appeared before the City Club in July to lay out his agenda for the next four years. The 48-year-old environmental engineer said the city missed chances during the 1990s to take visionary steps that will pay dividends in the long run.

Investing in Children's Programs

Investing in children's programs is the type of step the city needs to take now, said Saltzman, who is spearheading a $50 million, five-year children's levy on the November ballot. The programs the levy will pay for, from early Head Start to after-school and child-abuse prevention programs, "can have the most profound, longest-lasting impact on Portland's future," he told a crowd of about 100 at the Multnomah Athletic Club.

"It's a well-worn cliche that our children are our future," Saltzman said. "If I had a dollar for every time a politician said that, we could practically fund this initiative. But despite the rhetoric, too many children are not getting the support they need to thrive."

Fourteen Reports of Child Abuse a Day

"Portland police receive 14 reports of child abuse a day," Saltzman said, "and two-fifths of the city's children are living under or very near the poverty line."

"The economic downturn and corporate buyouts have hammered Portland," Saltzman said, "making its unemployment rate tops in the nation. But it's short-sighted to pursue economic development strategies without shoring up early childhood education."

"Failure to invest in our kids means that our other economic development strategies, even if successful, will often create jobs that Portlanders aren't qualified to fill," he said.

Saltzman has stressed children's programs and the environment in his first four years, drawing fire along the way. He pressed for a receiving center for abused children, for a slice of urban renewal taxes to pay for children's programs, and for a controversial 25-cent increase in the city's garbage bills to pay for a green building fund.

Saltzman, a former county commissioner, stuck with his trademark matter-of-fact style in the speech, but sprinkled in some cracks that drew chuckles from the crowd. "As you may know, I'm an engineer," he said, deadpan. "That explains where all my charisma comes from."

Finding the Right School

School Choices in Greater Portland

We strongly recommend reading Molly Huffman's book, School Choices in Greater Portland (ISBN: 0-9639879-6-8).  It is considered the best source for researching Portland area schools. You can order it online from Powell's Books in Portland.  Make certain you get the 2nd edition, copyrighted in 2000.  The book covers the following public school districts:  Beaverton, Gresham-Barlow, Hillsboro, Lake Oswego, North Clackamas, Portland, Riverdale, Tigard-Tualatin, and West Linn-Wilsonville. There are chapters on private schools and preschools.  Plus a section on "How to Enrich Your Child's Education."

Molly doesn't pull any punches when it comes to giving her assessment of a school.  For example, here is what she wrote about the Milwaukie High School (southeast suburb):

"Milwaukie High School has had its share of problems in the past few years.  There have been some racial incidents between Hispanic students and white supremacist students.  The facility itself is old and in need of upgrading.  The school offers several good programs, however."

Selecting a School Based on Standardized Tests

Going strictly by standardized test scores to evaluate a school has many pitfalls but you can compare "apples to apples" because of the Oregon standardized testing program started in 1991.  The Oregon Statewide Assessment Test (OAT) is an effort to hold students accountable for high academic standards as measured by a series of annual tests conducted at benchmark grade levels.

These test scores show how the Oregon students at an individual school performed, on average, in relation to the statewide averages, depending on the test.  Of course, what is important to parents is how their own children are performing. Three types of comparison can be made for each school:

• Improvement or decline with the school itself over time
• Ranking against all other schools statewide
• Comparison of the school with demographically similar schools

Let's explain some of the OAT terms and the testing methods, then we'll point you to where you can obtain the scores for every public school in Oregon (plus some private schools if they elect to participate).

OAT Terms and Testing Methodology

OAT is made up of multiple-choice and performance assessments in these five areas:

• Reading and literature knowledge and skills (grades 3, 5, 8 and 10)
• Mathematics knowledge and skills (grades 3, 5, 8 and 10)
• Science (grades 8 and 10)
• Writing (grades 5, 8 and 10)
• Mathematics problem solving (grades 5, 8 and 10)

OAT is different from national, norm-referenced tests used in many districts and states. The Oregon Statewide Assessment is a criterion-referenced assessment. As a result, the types of scores produced from the OAT are somewhat different from those produced by national, norm-referenced tests. OAT is based on "performance standards" which means that the number, type, and minimum scores required on state and local assessments have been established by a panel.  Read the criteria at the Oregon Department of Education Web site.

Scoring System

For reading/literature and mathematics, scores produced from the OAT are based on an achievement scale widely used in the Northwest. The scale, with numbers ranging from about 150 to 300, is similar to other scales such as the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scale or other "growth" scales. Each point on the scale is at an equal distance from the previous point on the scale, so changes up or down can be charted and viewed as comparable from year to year.

Writing and mathematics problem solving rely on a model, which trains expert "judges," typically classroom teachers, to match student work to criteria for performance on a predetermined scale.

Comparing Schools with Demographically Similar Schools

OAT uses a School socioeconomic score (SES) to compare similar schools. A composite picture of a schools socioeconomic status (SES) is drawn from available information describing the schools demographics. Four variables were identified that best predict student achievement:

• Percent of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch
• Student mobility rate
• Student attendance rate
• At grades 8 and 10, level of education of the most educated parent

From this information on all Oregon public schools, an SES index is built using a weighted combination of these four indicators. Schools are then ranked on the SES index.  At the Oregon Department of Education Web site, you can then compare a given school with schools having a similar SES index.

Where to Find the Test Results

The Oregon Department of Education maintains the OAT scores for all Oregon public schools online and you can find them at OAT Results.  OAT scores can be view by the school district overall as well as individual schools within a school district. 

Which Portland Metro Area School Districts Have the Best OAT Scores

Some of the school districts in the Portland metro area achieving the high test results are Lake Oswego, Riverdale, and West Linn/Clackamas.  Beaverton has many schools within its district that do well on the OAT tests. Three Portland high schools with solid OAT scores are Grant, Lincoln, and Wilson. 

There are many high scoring schools within a school district.  For example, in the Beaverton School District The Arts and Communications High School had excellent reading and literature scores.  Their average SAT score for verbal was 577 with 62% of the seniors tested in the 2000-2001 school year.  The Linda Terra Elementary had 66% of the 3rd graders and 51% of the 5th graders exceed the standard for reading and literature.

Zoning Rules Mingles Haves and Have-nots

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that those schools with the highest SES index (most affluent) happened to be located in those areas with the highest-priced homes. It's the same all over the country, not just in Oregon.

But Portland has something that few others metro areas have to offer.  A chance for kids to attend a school in some of the better school districts. In the June Moving to Portland newsletter, we reported on "Zoning Rules Mingle Income Groups."  To quote from the article:

"Bucking national trends, Portland and its suburbs became more economically integrated during the 1990s, new census figures show. Low-income families are less concentrated in the city of Portland and more likely to live in the suburbs -- nearly all the suburbs -- than a decade ago. Upper-income, middle-income and working-class people remain more likely to live near each other than in separate enclaves."

The residential mingling of haves and have-nots can be traced to a state land-use rule put in place nearly a quarter-century ago, local developers and planners say. Called the Metropolitan Housing Rule, it required every suburban city and county to zone for a large number of apartments.

School Report Cards

The Oregon State lawmaker passed a School Report Card bill in 1999.  It requires that the Oregon Department of Education produce and issue a report card for all schools and districts. This law was passed to recognize that members of the public want consistent and reliable information about their schools.

• Student performance
• Student behavior
• School characteristics
• Improvement adjustment

The rating system factors in both current performance and improvement over time. You can view the results of  school report cards at the Department of Education School Report Card Web site.

School Report Cards offer another tool for evaluating a school.  Of the four factors that schools are graded on, "student performance" has to do with the OAT scores, two factors (student behavior and school characteristics) are somewhat subjective. The "improvement adjustment" is meant only for internal purposes. So report cards grades makes it difficult to compare school to school or district to district.  Nevertheless, report cards are another tool that should be used but with caution.

SAT Scores on The Report Card

A hidden benefit of the School Report Cards is the reporting of SAT scores.  All the Oregon high school report cards has a SAT table which shows the average college entrance SAT score for senior graduating during a given school year.  The table contains the following:

• School, state, and national average scores for the verbal and math tests
• The percentage of seniors tested at the school
• The number of seniors tested at the school

The Report Card for a school district and schools within a district has other very valuable information on it such as attendance, faculty data, etc.

View SAT Scores for Individual Schools

To view a school report card go to School Report Card. 

Portland School Board Calls Off Search for Superintendent After Six Candidates Reject Job

The decision came a day after Rhode Island educator Diana Lam rebuffed the school board's offer to bring her to Portland. She was the sixth superintendent this year to publicly reject Portland's bid to land a permanent school leader.

Scherzinger was chief financial officer under former Superintendent Ben Canada and was named interim superintendent in July 2001. Scherzinger makes $150,000, but his salary could change as the school board negotiates his contract.

The former state revenue officer has no experience as an educator, but he pledged to recruit a chief academic officer as soon as possible. He said he also would revamp the central administration to better serve schools.  Scherzinger said he held back on making sweeping changes as superintendent candidates surfaced and then later dropped out. Nonetheless, he wrote a budget for next school year with $40 million in cuts, which the school board adopted with few changes. Scherzinger laid off the school district's custodial staff, closed two schools and proposed to cut nine days from the academic calendar next year.

The school board forced Canada from his post last year after growing claims that he had alienated teachers and could not manage the 54,000-student district. The district launched a national search last fall that netted four urban superintendents who came to Portland for public scrutiny in March and April but later dropped out.

Portland's 3,600 teachers will return to school in September under an expired contract.

Resources for Portland Kids

Audubon Society of Portland  This organization has excellent programs to include summer camps for kids.

Kids Portland Weather Keys in on the weather in the Portland area.  This site is good for all ages.

Kids on the Block Awareness Program  A Portland Oregon nonprofit educational organization, uses life-size puppets to help children learn to understand and accept differences in one another and to protect themselves in difficult situations

Northwest Parent Connection  A colorful and fun site that is structured around the Portland community.  Includes parenting articles, resources, interactive forums, an activity guide, and more.

Multnomah County Library Kids  A good place to start with links to all kinds of activities and aids. We especially like their page called read to your baby.

Oregon Kids  Interesting and fun website for children of many ages to enjoy.  Features games, surveys, homework help, links, and even has an section for parents.

Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI)  Make sure you see the grossology exhibit.

Oregon Parent Information and Resource Center  The Oregon Parent Information and Resource Center is a US Department of Education Parental Assistance Center. OPIRC's Web site includes research-based Hot Topics articles, links, a lending library of books, audio and video, training materials, and research reports, and contact information for the parent-serving agencies across the state that are OPIRC sites.

Oregon Partnership  Provides many local resources for parents and youth.

Oregon Zoo Located minutes from downtown.  MAX, the light rail system, has a stop at the zoo.

PBS for Kids  PBS Kids Online has thousands of pages to explore with loads of learning fun.  Just had to include this site even though we are suppose to address Portland-based resources.  Try the "silly songs".

Portland Children's Museum  Located next to the Oregon Zoo.

Portland Fire Women's NBA Team  The team's page for kids.

Portland Radio Guide for Kids  List of Portland radio stations that offer radio programs for kids.  Some of us are old enough to have grown up with radio (no TV) and listening to wonderful weekly shows. 
 

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