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June 2002
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Moving to Portland Newsletter
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by Susan Marthens
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Portland Home Market
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April 2002 Residential Highlights
April brought modest growth for listing activity in the Portland metro area. New listings grew by 1.7% when comparing April 2002 to April 2001. Pending sales grew by 6.8%. Closed sales also grew, up 1.2%.
Affordability
The area's affordability held at 130 for the first quarter of 2002 - matching the last quarter of 2001. A rising median home price was balanced by lowered interest rates ($172,000 and 7.01% in March 2002) and a slight increase in the median family income reported by HUD (to $57,200). Using a NAR formula, the family would have 30% more income than needed to afford the median-priced home with a 20% down payment.
Year-to-Date Trends
Since January, listing activity has shown a moderate decline when compared to year-to-date statistics at this time in 2001. The number of new listings loaded to Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) from the Portland metro area fell 5.6%. Similarly, the number of accepted offers reported for the area has fallen 4.2%. Closed sales, however, moved in the opposite direction, climbing 0.3%.
Appreciation
For the 12 months ending in April, the area's average sales price appreciated from $200,100 to $203,300. This shows growth of 1.6%, compared to the 12 months ended in April 2001. Median sales price appreciated from $168,000 to $170,000, up 1.2%.
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Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area
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For Period April 2002 |
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Area
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*RESIDENTIAL |
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| Current Month |
Year-To-Date
For Period Ended April 2002 |
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Average
Sales
Price
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Average
Sales
Price |
Median
Sales
Price |
Percent
Appreciated
**See note
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Portland |
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North
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140,500 |
141,000 |
135,000 |
7.9%
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Northeast
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194,300 |
192,100 |
165,300 |
9.3%
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Southeast |
166,400 |
163,300 |
148,900 |
4.3% |
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West
(Includes SW and NW Portland) |
314,000 |
297,300 |
239,900 |
-1.9% |
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Other Areas |
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Gresham/Troutdale |
175,600 |
175,900 |
164,700 |
1.5% |
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Milwaukie/Clackamas |
192,300 |
198,300 |
180,000 |
0.1% |
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Oregon City/Canby |
212,000 |
202,800 |
185,000 |
4.4% |
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Lake Oswego/West Linn |
325,100 |
322,900 |
257,500 |
-1.7% |
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Northwest Washington County |
279,700 |
269,500 |
234,500 |
4.3% |
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Beaverton/Aloha |
196,400 |
195,600 |
174,300 |
1.1% |
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Tigard/Wilsonville |
227,200 |
222,800 |
192,800 |
3.9% |
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Hillsboro/Forest Grove |
185,700 |
182,100 |
167,700 |
6.5% |
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Mt. Hood: Government Camp/Wemme |
124,700 |
146,700 |
134,000 |
8.8% |
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*Residential includes detached single-family houses, townhomes, condos, and plexes with four (4) or less living units.
**Appreciation percents based on a comparison of average price for the last 12 months with 12 months before (05/01/01 - 04/30/02 with 05/01/00 - 04/30/01).
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Cost of Residential Homes by Portland Neighborhood
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For the Year 2001 |
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**Neighborhood
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*RESIDENTIAL |
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Average
Sales Price
2001 |
Average
Sq Ft Price
2001 |
Average
Sales Price
1/1/02 - 7/1/02 |
Average
Sq Ft Price
1/1/02-7/1/02 |
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***Portland Neighborhoods
(D = Detached single family; C = Condo; T = Townhome; A = All to include "D", "C", "T")
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Northeast
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Alameda
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(D) $308,536 |
$152 |
--- |
--- |
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Beaumont-Wilshire
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(D) $189,950 |
$138 |
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Irvington
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(D) $341,558 |
$153 |
--- |
--- |
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Laurelhurst
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(D) $303,570 |
$139 |
--- |
--- |
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Southeast |
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Eastmoreland |
(D) $309,128 |
$150 |
--- |
--- |
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Mount Tabor |
(D) $221,784 |
$126 |
--- |
--- |
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Sellwood-Moreland |
(A) $189,787 |
$133 |
--- |
--- |
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West (Includes SW and NW Portland and a small section of Washington County) |
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Arlington Heights |
(D) $532,273 |
$191 |
--- |
--- |
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Corbett-Terwilliger-Lair Hill |
(D,C) $179,568 |
$131 |
--- |
--- |
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Forest Heights |
(D) $474,605
(C,T) $226,316 |
(D) $147
(C,T) $140
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--- |
--- |
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Multnomah Village |
(A) $176,907 |
$124 |
--- |
--- |
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Northwest District |
(A) $293,788 |
$186 |
--- |
--- |
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Pearl District |
(C,T) $308,452 |
$257 |
--- |
--- |
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Southwest Hills
(Council Crest) |
(D) $362,022 |
(D) $144 |
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Southwest Hills
(Portland Heights) |
(A) $497,201 |
(A) $194 |
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*Residential includes detached single-family houses, townhomes, condos, and plexes with four (4) or less living units.
**Please bear in mind that neighborhood values are, at best, good estimates. We extract the data from the Regional Multiple Listing System (RMLS) files, tweak the data, and then do the calculations. The problem has to do with the boundaries; historical versus neighborhood associations. Some real estate firms (each firm inputs the data for their particular listing, transaction) use the historical boundaries and some use the current neighborhood associations' boundary. We use the boundaries established by the Office of Neighborhood Involvement (ONI). Also, beware that some neighborhoods have only a few sales in a given year so averages tend to fluctuate widely between years.
***For detailed pricing, visit the "Neighborhood Profiles" section of the Website: Northeast, Southeast, Downtown, West Hills and Southwest.
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Long-Term Mortgage Rates Reach Six Months Low
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May 30, 2002 In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.76 percent, with an average 0.8 point, for the week ending May 31, 2002, slipping from 6.81 percent last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.24 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been this low since the week ending November 23, 2001, when it averaged 6.75 percent.
The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 6.22 percent, with an average 0.8 point, dropping from last week's average of 6.28 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.78 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been this low since the week ending November 16, 2001, when it averaged 5.98 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.76 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week's average of 4.85 percent. This time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 5.89 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.
"Slower economic growth this quarter and little or no inflation worries allowed rates to drift downward these last few weeks to the benefit of homebuyers. As a matter of fact, low mortgage rates induced an unexpectedly high level of new and existing home sales last month," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
"And interest in the 1-year ARMs has been rekindled, as the ARM rates of the last few months rival those of six years ago. The 1-year ARM share of the market has risen to nearly 20 percent in April. At the same time last year, 1-year ARMs accounted for only 10 percent of the market."
Portland Area Mortgage Rates As of May 30, 2002, Portland area lenders and mortgage brokers were offering APR 6.10% to 7.02% on 30-year fixed mortgages. Washington Mutual Bank (one of the area's largest lenders) was offering 6.75 percent (30-year FRM) with zero points on May 28th (APR of 6.87 percent). Wells Fargo Bank interest rate was 7.13 (no points) with an APR of 7.35.
Portland Area Mortgage Brokers To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate. To talk with a mortgage broker, consider:
- Associated Mortgage Group They are licensed in both Oregon and Washington. Telephone: (503) 221-0064 Fax: (503) 221-0396. Mr. Dave Jolivette is the contact.
- Stevens Mortgage Telephone: (503) 670-0535 Fax: (503) 670-0481. Mr. David Dishman is the contact.
You may want to read our Privacy Policy with regard to recommendations.
Home Sales Sales of existing homes shot up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.79 million in April, a 7 percent increase over March's level, according to the National Association of Realtors. April's performance marked the third-highest monthly sales pace on record.
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| Elections - Portland Maintains Standing as Leader in Sprawl Control |
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May 7, 2002 Election Results The Portland metropolitan area upheld its standing as a national leader in controlling urban sprawl by defeating a property rights group's attempt to loosen controls on growth.
"This is a big victory, an emphatic rejection of the cookie cutter vision of the future," Randy Tucker, spokesman for 1000 Friends of Oregon, the state's leading advocate for land use planning, said of the Tuesday vote. "Voters understand that regional planning is good for our air and water, protects farm and forest land, and helps build neighborhoods that are great places to life," said Jonathan Poisner, executive director for the Oregon League of Conservation Voters.
Voters faced two measures:
- Measure 26-11, sponsored by the property rights group Oregonians In Action, would have prohibited the Metro (regional government) from setting minimum population density requirements within the urban growth boundary. With 86 percent of the vote counted, it was defeated by 57 percent to 43 percent.
- Measure 26-29, a countermeasure from Metro, changes its charter to maintain control over urban density while requiring additional planning to protect the livability of neighborhoods and assure adequate services. It won by 66 percent to 34 percent.
Though its measure was defeated, Oregonians in Action spokesman Larry George said the campaign had revealed strong dissatisfaction with increasing density in urban neighborhoods, setting the stage for future change.
The urban growth boundary first adopted in 1979 has been tested in the last decade by fast expansion, spurred by a growing high technology industry that has since cooled.
Oregonians In Action argued that Metro has been too restrictive in expanding the boundary, resulting in overcrowded neighbors. Metro rallied all 24 mayors in the region behind its countermeasure, warning that easing density restrictions could allow sprawl to move into protected farm and forest land ringing the metropolitan area.
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Zoning Rules Mingle Income Groups
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Bucking national trends, Portland and its suburbs became more economically integrated during the 1990s, new census figures show. Low-income families are less concentrated in the city of Portland and more likely to live in the suburbs -- nearly all the suburbs -- than a decade ago. Upper-income, middle-income and working-class people remain more likely to live near each other than in separate enclaves.
With the exception of Happy Valley (far east side of the Portland metro area), no suburb shut out the working class during the booming 1990s, according to the first figures from the 2000 Census, that reveal incomes in Oregon communities.
Metropolitan Housing Rule
The residential mingling of haves and have-nots can be traced to a state land-use rule put in place nearly a quarter-century ago, local developers and planners say. Called the Metropolitan Housing Rule, it required every suburban city and county to zone for a large number of apartments. When those apartments went up fast in the 1990s, it enabled moderate- and low-income people to live practically all over, not only in Portland or the most bedraggled suburbs.
That sets Portland apart from most metropolitan areas, says Myron Orfield, author of American Metropolitics: The New Suburban Reality. Think of San Francisco, Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia -- all have sprouted exclusive suburbs where every home is an expensive single-family house on a large lot. The poor are consigned to the inner city or to decaying suburbs on the other side of town, he says.
During its 1990s boom, the Seattle area added Sammamish, a freshly minted suburb of 34,000 people overlooking a lake for which it is named, where the median income exceeds $100,000 and only 1.6 percent of families are poor. But to the west and across Puget Sound is Bremerton, population 37,000, where the share of residents living in poverty increased to 20 percent during the 1990s while median income stalled at $30,000.
Portland's economic contrasts are more muted. Its exclusive suburbs are not very exclusive, not by national standards. In Lake Oswego, one of the wealthiest in terms of per capita income, more than one-third of households earned less than $50,000 in 1999, the year for which incomes were tabulated on Census 2000 questionnaires.
The changes that add up to people of different incomes being more evenly spread around Portland and its suburbs were small and uneven, but widespread. In Portland, the share of people living below the federal poverty line fell from 14 percent to 13 percent, while the poverty rate increased about 1 percent, to 7 percent, across suburban Washington County. For the first time, more poor people in the three-county metro area lived in the suburbs than in Portland.
The census data just released mid-May are the first results from the 53-question Census 2000 questionnaire sent in April 2000 to about one-sixth of households. So far, the bureau has made public its initial long-form data for 13 states.
The Oregon figures show that households earning less than $50,000 -- roughly the median income for the metro area -- constitute at least a third of every city except Happy Valley. And even Happy Valley is changing: Two months after the census was taken, the city annexed a huge amount of neighboring turf, including a low-income mobile home park.
Some experts worry that poor people have been pushed out of Portland by the increasing rents that accompany gentrification. One big concern, said Ethan Seltzer, urban affairs specialist at Portland State University, is that the suburbs don't offer the convenient social services, public transit, parks and other features of the city. But low-income people who live in Portland's suburbs say suburban amenities -- the ability to walk to the mall or the movie theater, send your kids to suburban schools, enjoy the quiet that comes with getting out of the city -- are great for them.
Roots of Change
The roots of Portland's unique intermingling of incomes are in state rules championed by former Gov. Tom McCall and other pro-planning leaders.
Oregon's land-use planning laws are mostly known for promoting density and fighting sprawl, but they also were aimed at making sure that low-income people did not get shut out of any area, says Jack Orchard, a real estate and land-use attorney who has practiced in Oregon since 1972.
"Back in the '70s, there were some communities in the Portland metro area that more approximated bedroom communities -- a very, very high proportion of detached single-family housing on large lots, repeated over and over," Orchard said. "And philosophically, people said, that is not a healthy thing. Nearly everyone who lives in the Portland area has rented at some stage in their lives. . . . And people's economic circumstance should not determine the fabric of our community. We don't want to have whole communities that freeze some people out."
The fact that poor and working-class families are widely dispersed makes for a healthier metro area, say Bruce Katz, director of the Brookings Institution's Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, because workers don't have to live far from their jobs, social problems don't get compounded by being concentrated, and the central city and aging suburbs don't empty out and drag down the whole metro area. In the Bay Area, high-tech employers including Intel and 3Com are hounding city councils to zone for more low- and moderate-income housing so their workers don't have to live two hours from their jobs, Orfield said.
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Summer Time in Portland
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 Late May is transition time in Portland. We are almost into summer but not quite. May's rainfall averages 2.3 inches and the day time temperatures usually hits the low 70s. The last day in May brings the sun and a few clouds with a predicted high of 76 degrees. It's a day one can do lots of things outdoors. One of the things we do is start planning for attending summer events. Here are two of our favorites.
The Portland Rose Festival, Oregons premier civic celebration, has been a Northwest tradition for 95 years. With the theme Imagine the Possibilities, the 2002 Portland Rose Festival opened Thursday, May 30. We usually attend the parade because it's so entertaining and refreshingly wholesome with kids, horses, high school bands, and queens. This unique festival bursts into bloom each spring to celebrate the City of Roses with events, excitement and entertainment for all ages. More than two million spectators attend. Visit the Event Planner to see a listing of current Rose Festival Highlight Events.
Living close to the Oregon zoo, we attend as many Zoo Concerts as possible. We bring a blanket, picnic dinner, and a sweater. Since June, July and August rainfall averages less than 4 inches, a rainy evening is rare. This year's concerts feature the likes of Cowboy Junkies, Los Lobos, Bamboleo, BeauSoleil, and others. A local group, Pink Martini is one we never miss. Ray Charles will end the series on August 29th.
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Downtown Residential Open House Report
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 Loft may be our Next Home
On Sunday, May 19, more than 20 apartments and condos in downtown Portland opened their doors to show off for would-be buyers and tenants. Properties on Portland Progress' Downtown Residential Home Tour include apartments and for-sale properties, both new and pre-owned. We (my husband and myself) were in attendance at this event and we had a grand time.
We spent most of the time in two loft buildings - one just completed (Streetcar Lofts) and the other (Marshall-Wells) is in the progress of being converted to lofts for resale. Streetcar Lofts is all new construction.
Marshall-Wells is a genuine 1910 industrial warehouse, with high ceilings, large windows, and original woodwork. Listed on the National Register of Historic Places in 1988, the Marshall-Wells building is one of the Pearl District's last remaining industrial warehouses suitable for residential conversion. The most substantial change to the structure will be a 4,500-square-foot atrium cut in the center of the building from the roof to the third floor. The atrium will provide ventilation and light to 12 lofts located on each floor of the buildings interior. Also included will be 6 townhouses and 19 two-story penthouses. There will be 193 secure, covered parking spaces. Prices start at $139,000. Special financing is available for qualified first time homebuyers. To gauge the interest in this project, the building is 60% sold with "move-in" scheduled for late 2002.
We were as interested in observing the people as in the buildings. All ages were present: empty nesters to young couples plus many singles. At the Streetcar Lofts building we talked with a couple from central Oregon (Bend) who wanted a weekend city apartment (she more than he). Another couple we talked with wanted to escape the home maintenance of a single-family detached house and spend more time traveling and attending events in the downtown area.
When we moved to Portland years ago, we took a quick look at one of the first converted warehouses to lofts. Having lived in New York City and seen similar buildings in the SoHo (South of Houston) area, we were skeptical whether this kind of housing would "fly" in Portland. The Pearl District has taken off - it didn't need our endorsement. I have not had any clients buy a loft yet. But a loft may be in store for us in the near future. I love Portland and I really love the Pearl.
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