May 2003 Newsletter
by Susan Marthens
Contributors Gail Mann and Teresa Kirsch

In This Issue

1. Portland Home Market - March 2003 Residential Highlights

2. Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area for March 2003

3. Long-Term Mortgage Rates

4. Portland Weather

5. Update on School Budget

6. Condos Gaining in Popularity

7. A Peregrine' Tale - Reprinted with permission of the Audubon Society of Portland

8. CB Saves a Poodle from Cozy the Coyote

Portland Home Market

Who wants to sell their house? Everybody? Well, not exactly, but many more folks than last year. The number of new listings for the Portland metro area jumped by 11.5% in March 2003, over March 2002. You might think that would mean more listings on the market, but accepted offers and closed sales also increased. In fact, 13.3% more offers were accepted in March 2003 than March 2002. Closed sales grew by 6.0%.

Taking the closed sales for the month and comparing it to the number of active residential listings at months end (9,911), we arrive at an inventory of 4.6 months. That is how long the areas listings would last with no new entries and a constant rate of sales.

First Quarter Report for 2003

The first quarter of 2003 shows that 8.4% more new listings were added during Quarter One, 2003, compared to Quarter One, 2002. At the same time, pending sales have grown by 10.5%. In fact, all categories show increases over 2002, with closed sales getting in on the act by a 5.1% rise.

Appreciation

The average sales price during the 12 months ending in March 2003 was $212,200an increase of 5.0% over the $202,100 for the 12 months ending in March 2002. Median sales price also shows appreciation, rising by 4.7% ($178,000 v. $170,000)

Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area

Area

Average
Sales
Price

Percent
Appreciated
 **See note

North

5.9%

Northeast

5.2%

Falling Mortgage Rates Come Close to Record Low Rates Set Earlier in the Year

May 1, 2003 

In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.70 percent, with an average 0.6 point, for the week ending May 1, 2003, slipping from 5.79 percent last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.78 percent.

The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 5.03 percent, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week's average of 5.12 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.26 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 3.74 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down slightly from last week's average of 3.79 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 4.75 percent.

(Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.)

"Mortgage rates dropped for the third week in a row, bringing rates closer to the 40-year record low that was set in March of this year," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist. "As a matter of fact, mortgage rates have fallen enough over the last few months that families who refinanced in 2001 are now able to do so again, according to the results of Freddie Mac's quarterly refinance review released yesterday.

"Given the current low rates and the robust level of housing construction it appears the housing industry will continue to flourish well into the summer."

Freddie Mac is a stockholder-owned corporation established by Congress in 1970 to create a continuous flow of funds to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Freddie Mac purchases mortgages from lenders and packages them into securities that are sold to investors.

Portland Area Mortgage Rates

To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate.

Portland Weather
Tracking the Moisture and Sunshine

Water Year:  October 1 - September 30

Portland's rainfall is measured according to the "water year" which is from October 1 through the end of September.  Since we only receive a few inches in the summer months, the rain months are from October through May.  Almost half of Portland's annual rainfall falls in November, December, and January.  Our average water year precipitation is about 40 inches.

Water Year:  Measurements From Portland Airport Weather Station

April Rainfall Sets a Record

Measurable rain 0.01 inch or more fell on 24 days in April, breaking the record of 23 days set in 1955.  Measurable rain fell on 27 days in March, breaking the record set in 1961.  March and April combined for 51 days of measurable rain, breaking the record of 41 set in 1955 and 1997. 

The Oregon state climatologist, George Taylor, is one of a handful of Oregonians who sees good news in the spring rains.  "An inch of rain in April is worth four inches of rain in November because it comes closer to the period of greater demand," Taylor says.  Taylor predicted the dry fall and early winter and the wet spring.  He now says the mild El Nino that caused the dry fall is gone.  According to climate experts, warm water off the coast of South America has been replaced by much colder water, a sign that points to a La Nina, which brings rainier winters than normal to the Northwest.

Thunder and Lighting

In a rare display of the skies, the early evening of April 29 brought thunderstorms to the Portland metro area.  Along with thunder and lighting, we had heavy rain and some flooding. Many weather watchers reported that this was the some of the best lighting displays they've ever seen in Portland.

While common in central and eastern Oregon, thunderstorms are relatively rare in western Oregon. This is because the air doesn't often have the chance to get warm enough or rise high enough to form thunderheads. 

Snowpack Report

Moist skies and lower temperature in March brought snow to the mountains and except in the southeast corner of the state, the snowpack increased.  For example, in the Mt. Hood basin as of April 1, the snowpack was 64 percent of average, an increase of 27 percent from February.  March precipitation was 183 percent of average, the highest percentage in the state.  Totals for April 2003 have not been tabulated as of early May but it appears that the report will show a substantial increase in the snowpack.

For detailed information on water resources and snowpack visit the National Water and Climate Center.

Update on School Budget
County Voters Cast Ballots to Decide on a 1.5 Percent Tax

Multnomah County Votes on Whether to Support a Tax Increase

The ballots are in the mail (Oregonians vote by mail in most elections).  Multnomah County (i.e., City of Portland) voters will vote over the next few weeks on whether to increase their taxes by 1.25 percent in order to fund the eight different school districts in the county.  About 75% of the revenues from the measure will provide fund for schools and the other 25% will provide funds for health care, mental health, senior services, and public safety. The measure is called 26-48. Votes will be counted on May 20th.

Banking on an election victory in May, the Portland School board on April 26 approved a $392 million budget for the next school year that avoids teacher layoffs and lost school days.  The budget, which is 9 percent higher than current spending, assumes that country voters will agree on May 20 to a 1.25 percent income tax for three years to help Portland as well as seven other county school districts.

Measure 26-48

Measure 26-48 would raise $128 million to $135 million a year through the 2005-06 school year for county schools.  About half of that money would go to Portland schools. A taxpayer with an Oregon taxable income of $30,000 would pay an extra $344 a year in income taxes if the measure passes.  The tax would apply only to county residents, not employees who work in the county but live elsewhere. 

The measure is suppose to be a temporary measure until a statewide solution to the school funding shortfall can be founded.  Many believe that it will be a permanent solution.

Will it Pass?

Most likely, if Multnomah County voters vote the same way they did when they cast their votes on a statewide measure (school funding) earlier this year.  That measure failed by 55-45, which in itself is somewhat of a record considering that everyone predicted its defeat by wide margins.  In the metro area, only Multnomah County voted overwhelmingly for the measure.  Clackamas and Washington counties, home to the suburban communities, voted against the measure by substantial margins.

A "yes" vote would send a clear signal to school boosters around Oregon that temporary local taxes could be the way around state funding cuts.  If the measure fails, in Oregon's most liberal and populous county, it would be a victory for those who think government needs to focus on reining in spending.  

Suburban versus City

We have heard this comment (or along the same lines) numerous times in the last few weeks, "People in my company told us to buy a home in one of the suburbs as the Portland schools are in a big mess."  It usually is aimed at people who are relocating to the Portland metro area.  Also, a few realtors may be trying to reap some benefits out of the Portland school situation by urging their clients to sell their Portland home and buy a house in the suburbs.

Yes, the Portland schools are in a difficult funding situation as are many of the suburban schools.  For example, the Hillsboro district has cut 14 days off of this school year and more cuts are planned for the 2003-04 school year. But the business leaders, school leaders, parents, and citizens of the city of Portland have rallied and sought a solution.  Sure, it's a tax.  And no one wants a tax increase.  Portland-based businesses did their part by assuming a $20 million tax increase spread over three years - all for school funding.

Two other metro suburban communities are planning tax ballots.  A Beaverton property tax levy would raise an estimated $19.7 million for schools next year and a Canby levy would raise $1 million.   

Portland schools may be deserving of criticism for mismanagement the last few years.  Especially the handling of the recruitment of a new superintendent and for not taking the necessary steps years ago to control health costs for district employees.

If Measure 26-48 goes down in defeat, then the Portland Schools will have to make some serious cuts.  We are very optimistic that the ballot will pass.  If it does pass, the Portland Schools will be in good financial health for the next three years - as good as a couple of the well-managed suburban districts and in better shape than most suburban districts.

Condos Gaining in Popularity
Portland Condos Increasing in Value Faster Than Detached Homes

Condos refer to a style of ownership in which residents own everything inside their walls and a share of the remainder of the grounds and facilities. Residents pay dues to an association to cover and administer monthly expenses, such as water and upkeep and longer-term capital needs.

Why the Growing Popularity of Condos?

Everyone has a theory.  Brokers attribute the demand (and the surge in prices) to several factors: higher land prices, pressure from land use regulators to develop higher-density projects on ever-shrinking land parcels, and changing lifestyle needs.

The buyers include aging baby boomers are looking to downsize their homes after their children leave, working singles, elderly homeowners who don't want to care for yards but want to build equity and young buyers who think of condos as affordable "starter" homes.  Beyond brokers, others think it was done by design as people did not want sprawl.

Condo Projects in the Metro Area

Legend Homes has completed 46 units of its planned 345-unit high-end condo and townhouse project, Stonewater at Orenco, in Hillsboro near the MAX line. Stonewater's most popular design so far is a three-bedroom, two bathroom, two-garage, 1,384-square-foot model priced at $195,000.

Stearns and Marnella latest project is a 30-unit example in Milwaukie called Linden Village. The 1,505-square-foot, three-bedroom, 2.5-bath units are priced between $139,950 and $154,950 each.

National Trend:  Condos Sales Growing

Nationally, condos broke sales records for the seventh consecutive year in 2002, according to National Association of Realtors (NAR), which tracks sales across the United States. Nationally, condos had a 11.3-percent increase in the median price from 2001 to 2002. The median price jump for detached homes, by comparison, was up 7.1 percent.

Oregonians saw condos as risky and tended to avoid them through the 1980s. In 1989, condos comprised 35 percent of all home transactions in the Bay area, 19 percent in Seattle and a mere 3 to 4 percent in Portland.

Portland Condo Prices

Portland's median condo sales price has grown by about 6.6 percent annually, according to NAR, slower than national trends but still higher than the 4 percent annual growth in Portland's median home prices. A condo that sold for $93,100 in 1996 was selling for $130,400 in 2002. Condos also have become a bigger portion of the total housing stock sold in Portland. In 1996, condos comprised only 4 to 5 percent of all sales. Now they account for 7 to 8 percent of all sales, according to NAR.

Case Study - Pearl Condos

Just to satisfy our own curiosity, we decided to look at what is happening to condo prices by reviewing sales at one condo building in the Pearl District, the Chown Pella Lofts.  Admittedly, this is not very scientific but we think it will give readers a sense of what to expect should they purchase a Pearl condo. 

The Chown Pella was one of the first loft projects.  Located at 416 NW 13th Avenue, it was at one time a real warehouse.  The building was converted in 1995-96, and the first sales were in late 1996.

Unit 216:  Sold for $159,000 in October 1996.  Sold for $219,000 in May 2000.  Currently on the market and listed for $289,000.
Unit 416: Sold for $278,000 in January 1997.  Resold for $525,000 in March 2003.
Unit 507:  Sold for $149,652 in October 1996.  Resold for $249,000 in April 2003.
Unit 603:  Sold for $214,983 in October 1996.  Resold for $273,000 in March 1998.  Currently on the market and listed in April 2003 for $409,000

Please be aware that the owners of the above units could have made improvements to the homes such as adding wall partitions as the units when originally sold were very open.  Such improvements could account for some of the price changes between sales.

Just to make sure that we didn't use any "smoke and mirrors," you can do the same basic research in a few minutes by going to the Portland Maps Web site at www.portlandmaps.com.  Just insert the address "416 NW 13" into the homepage.  You will be presented with a scrolling page of all the units in the building. Click on any unit which will bring you information about the unit.  To view pricing, click on "assessor."

A Peregrine's Tale
by Bob Sallinger, Wildlife Care Center Director, Audubon Society of Portland
reprinted with permission from the Audubon Society of Portland

Sometime during the morning of June 3rd, 2002 a young peregrine left its nest ledge beneath the lower deck of the Fremont Bridge and did something that none of the 28 other peregrines that have hatched at this site since 1994 have done. He flew!

Because of the location and physical dynamics of the Fremont Bridge peregrine nest ledge, young falcons tend to fall rather than fly. They come careening down to the ground or the river below sometimes as much as three to four days before their feathers have developed to the point where they can sustain flight. The other three falcons hatched at this nest during 2002 all followed just this pattern. One was consumed by a predator before it gained flight and the other two were quickly moved to the rooftop of a local building where their parents continued feeding and caring for them until they completed the fledging process. The fourth falcon in the brood was an exception, a hotshot, really. As he stood at the edge of the ledge flapping his wings and building his strength, a west wind lifted him from his perch and sent him out over the river. He landed nearly a third of a mile away on the roof of a warehouse. By the following day he had recrossed the river. That evening a volunteer peregrine monitor called me to breathlessly report that 39 days after emerging from his egg and a mere 30 hours after taking his first flight, our young falcon was practicing his skills by flying repeatedly back and forth between the upper and lower decks of the bridge. The following morning a motorist phoned Portland Audubon to report what we all feared would happen; the young falcon had been struck by a vehicle on the Fremont Bridge and was now lying in the breakdown lane of the lower deck.

A few minutes later, I inched my vehicle up behind him and slowly eased open the door not wanting to spook him into the traffic roaring by. He stood and turned to face me. One wing drooped to the ground and his mouth opened, a sign of stress that gives peregrines a vague look of indignant outrage. He began to cack loudly as I stuffed him into my vehicle and headed back towards Audubon. His mouth was full of blood and more blood bubbled forth from his glottis (windpipe) as he protested his capture.

His x-rays portrayed a dismal picture. His lungs were full of blood and several of his ribs were broken. Should he even survive his injuries, the prospect for regaining flight was unlikely. In a best case scenario it would be months before he would be releasable. While his siblings were out learning vital life skills from the adult peregrines, he would  be passing his time in a small recovery cage.

With the help of the Avian Medical Center, one of many local veterinary clinics that donate their services to assist the work of the Wildlife Care Center, we were able to stabilize his injured wing and ribs. Several days in an oxygen tank allowed his lungs to clear. Within a month the ribs had begun to heal, although in something of a crazy zig-zag pattern rather than the smooth curve that is normal.

In mid-July we moved him to a small flight cage. We expected him to be out of shape, but even our low expectations went unrewarded when he attempted to leap from the floor to a low perch. Lop-sided and lethargic, he gained less than three feet in altitude before crashing back to earth. We built him a ramp.

As the weeks passed, things improved. By setting his food at higher and higher levels, we enticed him to jump and build his strength. Over time, his wings equalized and by August his vertical leap had reached eight feet. He was ready for the 100-foot flight cage.

Falcons are built for high speeds and open spaces. Even a falcon as inexperienced as this one instinctually yearns for free flight and struggles with the confines of an enclosed space. Our young falcon took two hops and launched himself at the horizon. One hundred feet later he rammed into the netted wall of the flight cage, an impact that sent him sprawling backwards almost a third of the distance he had flown.

We decided to go with Plan B. Rick Olcott, a licensed falconer located in Washington, volunteered to take our young falcon and free-fly him through the winter. Wild birds of prey can be trained for falconry and subsequently released. Done properly, they will quickly revert back to a wild state. The time this bird spent with Rick would allow him to build strength and stamina and also perfect his hunting skills, something that he never had a chance to do prior to his injury.

Rick worked with the falcon for several months. By April, the falcon was adept at hunting and able to quickly climb to an altitude of over 1,000 feet. Late on a windy day in mid-April, Rick took the falcon out to a bottomland near his home, removed the falcons jesses and set him aloft for the last time. Nearly 10 months after his first flight, this young falcon was free in the skies that he had known for less than two days before his injury.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
This is the story of just one of the more than 3,500 animals that pass through the Wildlife Care Center each year. The Care Center is almost entirely funded by donations from the general public. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Care Center is running a deficit. Please consider making a donation to help give birds like this Peregrine Falcon a second chance at life in the wild.

How to Obtain a Copy of the Audubon Society of Portland Monthly Newsletter

To download a copy of the Audubon Society's monthly newsletter, (Warbler) go to their Web site at http://www.audubonportland.org/about/warbler.html.

CB Rescues Poodle from Cozy the Coyote in Washington Park

On another early April Sunday morning, CB and my husband took a quick walk through the Rose Garden and had just came out of the garden and turned the corner heading for home.  Hearing a loud scream from behind him, he turned to see the terrified face of a lady with a small poodle in her arms. The first words out of her mouth were, "Help us, the coyote is after us."  Sure enough, Cozy was about 50 feet behind the lady with her poodle.  Stalking both and looking for a poodle breakfast perhaps . . .

Once again, CB spots Cozy and gives chase.  Cozy runs down the stairs and heads into the garden.  CB loves the chase as she has always been more interested in the journey than the destination.  After making sure the lady and the poodle are O.K., my husband follows the animals.  He is not concerned about CB as he is certain that she can take care of herself.  After all, she has Cozy by 25-30 pounds.

As he nears the top of the garden, he hears a yip from CB and she comes dashing towards him.  She is very happy to see him.  My husband figures the roles have reversed; Cozy decides to defend himself and stands his ground.  CB is definitely not a fighter and if she can't win by intimidation, she will retreat.  He reported that CB walked very close to him on the way home.

Of course, we made a heroine out of CB, and have told the story numerous times about our fearless dog.

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