January 2003 Newsletter

by Susan Marthens

Happy New Year

Traveling in Minnesota over the New Year's holiday to visit family, we noticed this rural church.  It conveys the message I want to send you in 2003 - may the year bring you, your loved ones, and the world peace.

I appreciate your support for our monthly newsletter in 2002 and look forward to writing and e-mailing you the issues in the coming year.

Portland Home Market

November 2002 Residential Highlights

November brought us to the holiday season, but did not diminish the impressive activity in Portland's metro area.  Both pending sales and closed sales increased over November 2001.  Pending sales grew by 7.8%.  It is also worth noting that November 2002 recorded more accepted offers than any November on record.  November's closed sales didn't reach the all-time peak of 1,970 (in November 1997), but certainly outpaced November 2001 (by 16.5%).  All the while, new listings decreased by a slight 1.4%.

With November's rate of sales and the 9,832 active residential listings at the end of the month, the Portland metro area's inventory came to 5.0 months.

Appreciation

For the 12 months ended in November, Portland metro area's average sale price was $209,800.  Median price was $175,500.  Both price figures have appreciated from the 12 months ended in November 2001; average, by 4.4% (from $200,900); median, by 3.3% (from $169,900).

Year-to-Date Trends

With but a month left in 2002, the year's trends remain positive.  New listings are up 1.4% from their total at this time in 2001.  Pending sales exhibit a similar rate of growth, growing by 1.7%.  Closed sales went slightly further, increasing by 2.1% when comparing January-November 2002 to January-November 2001.

Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area

Area

Average
Sales
Price

Percent
Appreciated
 **See note

North

9.2%

Northeast

5.4%

Long-Term Mortgage Rate Lowest Since Early 1960s

December 27, 2002 

In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.85 percent, with an average 0.6 point, for the week ending January 3, 2003, down from 5.93 percent last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.14 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been this low since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 1971, and when compared to figures from the Federal Housing Finance Board, it has not been this low since the early 1960s.

The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 5.24 percent, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week's average of 5.32 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.62 percent. The 15-year FRM meets the lowest level ever recorded in Freddie Mac's weekly survey.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.06 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, slightly higher than last week's average of 4.01 percent. At the same time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 5.26 percent.

(Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.)

"Just when we were sure mortgage rates couldn't possibly drop any lower, we were surprised yet again," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist. "Current issues such as the possibility of military actions abroad, heightened terrorism alerts, and an unexpected drop in consumer confidence contributed to the decline in mortgage rates this week.

"Given the amount of uncertainty about the future, it is very difficult to make any predictions about mortgage rates in the near term. We continue to expect, however, that rates will hover around 6 percent for at least another few months."

Portland Area Mortgage Rates

To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate.

Portland Area Mortgage Brokers

To talk with a mortgage broker, consider: 

• Associated Mortgage Group   They are licensed in both Oregon and Washington.    Telephone:  (503) 221-0064  Fax:  (503) 221-0396.  Mr. Dave Jolivette is the contact.
• Mortgage World  Telephone: (503) 292-4900.  Mr. Tim Bolen is the contact.
• Stevens Mortgage  Telephone: (503) 670-0535  Fax: (503) 670-0481.   Mr. David Dishman is the contact.
• Windermere Mortgage Services  Telephone: (503) 497-5060 or (800) 867-1337.  Ms. Cynthia Rockney-Wilson is the contact.  Also Bertha Ferran at (503) 464-9215.

You may want to read our Privacy Policy with regard to recommendations.

Portland's Winter Weather
Tracking the Moisture

Water Year:  October 1 - September 30

Portland's rainfall is measured according to the "water year" which is from October 1 through the end of September.  Since we only receive a few inches in the summer months, the rain months are from October through May.  Almost half of Portland's annual rainfall falls in November, December, and January.  Our average water year precipitation is about 40 inches.

Water Year:  Measurements From Portland Airport Weather Station

Report on Rainfall for December 2002

Remember the old saying, "Be careful what you wish for".  Our wishes started receiving attention the second week of December and by the end of the month, we were wishing we hadn't wished quite so hard.  We received eight inches of rain in December 2002 - the average is 5.71 inches.  We started the month with only 30 percent of our normal rainfall to date and we ended the month with 74 percent. 

On Christmas Day, we got a reprieve and it was a dry day - perfect for a long walk before dinner.  We considered skiing on Mt. Hood during the holidays, but never found the time.  Timberline Lodge (elevation 6,000 feet) was reporting close to 80 inches as the new year began. 

Mountain Weather Data

A unique mountain weather data network is installed, maintained and managed by Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center forecasters, and hourly data from this comprehensive weather network is available. We usually go right to the snowfall data at Timberline Lodge but you can check all the Cascade peaks on the site.  It's fun to look at the video/cams - especially during a good snow.
 

The New Year
It's Time to Fix the Oregon Tax System

We love this place but the new governor and state legislators have to overhaul the tax system.  Governor-elect Ted Kulongoski (former Oregon Supreme Court judge) has made numerous statements about his vision for Oregon but no specifics have been forthcoming.  We will be following the new governor (Democrat) and state legislature (Republicans control the house and the senate is split 15-15) in 2003 and reporting on their progress in future newsletters.
 

Whale Watching on The Oregon Coast

They start their journey in early December in the cold waters of Alaskas Bering Strait.  Magnificent gray whales, blotchy and barnacle-covered, leave their summer and fall feeding grounds to head for warmer waters on the west coast of Baja California, Mexico.

The pregnant females are the first to start the long migration, followed by other adults, then younger whales. It will be a 5,000-mile trip, during which they will eat very little or go without food for three to five months.

Gray whales are baleen whales, which means that instead of teeth, they have a row of 138 to 180 baleen plates growing along each side of their upper gum line. The plates are used to strain the water for food. They are the most common large whale along the west coast of North America and feed in shallow water near the shore.

Unlike other whales, gray whales do not travel in groups, according to Dr. Bruce Mate, director of the Marine Mammal Program at Oregon State University. All the baleen whales pretty much travel as individuals, Mate said. "They never stop, traveling day and night," he added.

By the first week of January, the southern migration reaches its peak along the Oregon Coast, with whales passing by at a rate of 30 per hour. Around the middle of February, most will be gone, continuing on their southern migratory route. It is during this peak time that whale watching on the Oregon Coast kicks into high gear.

December 26 to January 2 is annual Whale Watch Week, with trained volunteers stationed at nearly 30 sites along the states coastline to help visitors spot whales and to share information about these elusive and fascinating mammals.

One of the best times to see whales is in the morning, when the sun is at your back. Look for blows shooting out of the water, then grab a pair of binoculars and take a closer look. Calm days are best for whale watching.  Special charter boats and air services offer alternative and often very up-close views of migrating whales. They are available for a fee at many locations, such as Depoe Bay and Yaquina Bay in Newport.

Once the whales arrive in Mexico, birthing begins at about Christmas and takes place in lagoons and offshore. It peaks in early February. A female gray whale gives birth to a single calf every two years after a 12-month gestation period, Mate said. When she gives birth to a calf, it weighs a ton, he said. When the whales return during their spring migration, the females and their babies are the last to leave and can be spotted along the Oregon Coast as late as June.

Eager whale watchers again line the headlands and viewpoints during spring Whale Watch Week, which will take place March 22 to 29 as the gray whales make their way northward. Although winter and spring are the best times, whale watching can take place year-round. Many gray whales make their residence off the Oregon Coast, especially during summer and fall.

 

SW Beaverton-Hillsdale Highway
Suite 100
Portland, Oregon 97221
(503) 297-1033

Web by
Dasan Design
(503) 819-0011
Fax (503) 224-9083

Susan Marthens
Real Estate Broker, GRI
(503) 497-2984
Fax (503) 220-1131

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