April 2003 Newsletter
by Susan Marthens

In This Issue

1. Portland Home Market - February 2003 Residential Highlights

2. Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area for January 2003

3. Long-Term Mortgage Rates

4. Portland Winter Weather

5. Update on School Budget

6. Tram Design Approved

7. New Portland Magazine: Sustainable Industries Journal

8. Coyotes in Washington Park

Portland Home Market

February 2003 Residential Highlights

Every indicator of market activity rose when compared to February 2002.  The number of listings entered didn't stop climbing until it was over 200 more than last February, an increase of 7.8%.  Listings taken off the market as pending sales rose by a similar amount, but such an amount made for an 11.3% rise for the category.  Listings that were ultimately recorded as closed sales increased by 3.8%.

Closed sales and the 9,729 active residential listings at month's end determine inventory.  In the unlikely event that no new listings are added and the rate of sales remains unchanged, the area's listings would last 5.8 months.

Year-To-Date Trends

The percentages for the entire past 12 months in each category also rose: listings - 7.3%; listing that became pending sales - 20.4%; and listings recorded as closed - 4.2%.

Appreciation

Comparing the 12 months that ended with February 2003 to the 12 months that ended with February 2002, the area's average sales price rose 5.1% ($211,800 versus $201,600).  For the same time periods, the area's median sales price rose from $170,000 to $177,500, an increase of 4.4%.

Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area

Area

Average
Sales
Price

Percent
Appreciated
 **See note

North

7.4%

Northeast

7.0%

Mortgage Rates Climb for Second Week in a Row
Still Affordable

March 27, 2003 

In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.91 percent, with an average 0.6 point, for the week ending March 28, 2003, rising from 5.79 percent last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.18 percent.

The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 5.21 percent, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week's average of 5.11 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.60 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 3.84 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from 3.75 percent last week. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 5.11 percent.

(Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.)

"Following the onset of the Iraq conflict, financial markets seem to have an upward bias for mortgage rates. Specifically, the market expects the conflict to end relatively soon, thereby allowing the business sector to shift its focus from the short-term to the long-term and begin activity that would spur economic growth," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist.

"However, that's not to say that uncertainty has diminished in any large way, but that it has shifted to a different set of unknowns."

Freddie Mac is a stockholder-owned corporation established by Congress in 1970 to create a continuous flow of funds to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Freddie Mac purchases mortgages from lenders and packages them into securities that are sold to investors.

Portland Area Mortgage Rates

To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate.

Portland's Winter Weather
Tracking the Moisture

Water Year:  October 1 - September 30

Portland's rainfall is measured according to the "water year" which is from October 1 through the end of September.  Since we only receive a few inches in the summer months, the rain months are from October through May.  Almost half of Portland's annual rainfall falls in November, December, and January.  Our average water year precipitation is about 40 inches.

Water Year:  Measurements From Portland Airport Weather Station

Report on Rainfall for February 2003

March rainfall was more like December or January.  And January's rain this year was like the average March.  What a backwards winter.  We thought for certain that our actual precipitation would equal the average but we were short almost an inch.

Last March Weekend Temperatures in the 70s

What a time of the year to be in Portland! Especially the last weekend of the month.  Clear sunny days with temps in the low 70s.  The city parks and sidewalks were full of hikers and strollers. 

All the flowering fruit trees, dogwoods, and magnolias are in bloom.  The early rhodies and azaleas are just starting to bloom.  Daffodils and tulips are still with us.  One of the joys of spring hiking in Portland area forested parks is that the trilliums are out. The Hoyt Arboretum Redwood Trail is our favorite.  You'll see patches of 15-25 plants.

Snowpack 58 Percent of Normal in Oregon

Moist skies and lower temperature also brought snow to the mountains.  At Timberline Lodge (elevation 6,000 feet) on Mt. Hood, the snow level was 160 inches on the last day of March.  In early March, the mountain received four feet of snow in a 48-hour period.  But we still need more snow.  On March 31, a large upper-level trough hung over the Pacific.  It will keep the weather cool and forecasts are for more snow down to 1,500 feet.  

For detailed information on water resources and snowpack visit the National Water and Climate Center.

Update on School Budget

Schools Budgeting for 2003-2004

Portland families can count on a full 171-day school year this year but this does not solve the problem for the next school year. Portland forced the issue in late February when the city negotiated a deal with the school district to prevent shortening the school year by offering $15 million from a proposed increase in business license fees. Voters will need to approve the local income and business taxes needed to keep school days and class sizes intact for the next school year.

The votes needed to make it happen:

• Portland teachers and school board must agreed upon terms of a new teachers contract.
• Portland City Council to enact a 34 percent increase in city business license fees.
• Multnomah County voters - approve new income tax for schools.

In early March, the teachers and the Portland School Board both approved a new contract for the teachers. The city council proposed the new business tax in mid-March. The proposal will be tested with sample tax returns this summer.

Business Tax Plan

Under the proposal, which will be tested with sample tax returns this summer, the city and county would reduce their respective income tax rates to 1.39 percent and institute a payroll tax of 0.395 percent.

Currently the city taxes business income at 2.2 percent, while the county levies a 1.45 percent tax. Portland businesses pay both, for a combined rate of 3.65 percent. The two governments tax only the income that businesses make in the city and county, not products or services shipped to customers elsewhere. And business owners defined as those who own 5 percent or more of their business can exclude as much as $55,000 of their own salary from income.

But the business community appears anything but united behind the plan, which was primarily negotiated by members of the Portland Business Alliance. Instead, the issue has become something of a crucible in the business community, turning private disagreements into a public debate.  This issue is supposed to be resolved in September.

Multnomah County Vote - .25 Percentage Point Surcharge

Voters in May will vote on a special three-year .25 percentage point surcharge on personal income that will be devoted to Multnomah County schools.

Oregon State Legislature School Budget for Next Two Years

The Oregon Senate Ways and Means committee co-chairmen Sen. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, and Rep. Randy Miller, R-West Linn   are proposing a school budget of $4.6 billion for the next two-year budget cycle. That's $300 million less than today's spending, $600 million short of what the Legislature originally earmarked for schools this budget and $450 million less than what Gov. Ted Kulongoski proposed in January. The numbers are not firm, and both Schrader and Miller hope they can be raised   if they can find the money.

But if the proposal stands, Portland would lose about $10 million a year the next two years, or the equivalent of about 140 teachers. And that's assuming that voters in May approve a special three-year increase in the income tax that would be devoted to Multnomah County schools. That would produce about $55 million a year for Portland. Beaverton officials, for example, figure they would have to cut five days off the calendar, eliminate sports and increase class size by four or five students. The Tigard-Tualatin School District, which pared five days from the calendar this year, would be $8.2 million short next year under the proposal being floated in Salem. That's the equivalent of 164 teachers, Superintendent Steven Lowder said.

Tram Design Approved
Led by a Portland Native, Swiss/LA Firm Snags the Prize with a Minimalist Design

Postcard Shot Loses

Mayor Vera Katz, Williams, and the president of OHSU, Peter Kohler, all wanted a "postcard shot."  Instead, the six-member jury picking the designer for a Portland aerial tram unanimously voted for an architecture firm that hopes to "make the tram disappear."

Winning Firm and Design

The Los Angeles/Zurich, Switzerland-based firm of Angelil, Graham, Pfenninger, Scholl won the commission, it was announced in late March, with a proposal to turn the controversial transport system into a minimalist sculpture. Led by Portland native Sarah Graham and her Swiss-born husband, Marc Angelil, the team would make the tram towers out of slender wood laminates and transform the tram cars into sky-reflecting "bubbles."

In fact, it was Angelil and Graham's "deep appreciation of the local landscape and their sensitivity to the need to minimize the visual and other impacts on the affected communities" that most influenced the jury, said Dianna Goldschmidt, a management consultant who served as one of the six-member jury's three local members.

The Other Designs

All of the four finalists presented similar concepts for a park connecting the neighborhood to the new waterfront development. The other three teams presented a more visually aggressive concepts. SHoP proposed artichoke-shaped tram stations served by cars resembling insects.  Architectural Research Office proposed a 328-foot-high, 60-foot-wide steel lattice for the lower tram tower and a 140-foot-high, solid-concrete upper tower. The Dutch firm, UN Studio, proposed futuristic towers, stations and cars, and it developed an entirely new technology and route for the tram that would offer more flexibility.

Randy Gragg, The Oregonian's writer on architect, has an article in the March 30 issue of The Oregonian about the tram design.

New Portland Magazine: Sustainable Industries Journal

They are targeting business leaders who think "sustainable" practices will make them more competitive.  With their magazine, Blosser and Back are seeking to define and explore such practices, which include reducing resource use, decreasing waste and tapping into a burgeoning market of consumers seeking products that are better for the environment.

How to Obtain a Copy

The publishers are offering a free issue - go to www.sijournal.com/free_issue.asp to signup.

Coyotes in Washington Park

Last week, my husband was walking along the Reservoir Road early in the morning with CB, our Wirehaired Vizsla dog. Suddenly CB notices an animal (Cozy) running down a hill above them and CB immediately gives chase. We have discovered over the years that CB will only do this if the critter runs - let a cat "hold her ground" and CB will quickly lose interest. My husband wonders what could possibility happen as CB is twice the size of Cozy who weights about 25-30 pounds.  Both animals quickly disappear from sight at a bend in the road.

Walking another block or two along the road, he gives a call for CB and out from the woods she comes along with her new friend, Cozy tagging a couple of feet back of CB.  The chase is over and CB goes back to her usual morning walk activity; nose on the ground sniffing for game. Cozy is disappointed in CB's behavior as she wants to play.

The park and adjoining Hoyt Arboretum (200 acres) have a population of coyotes.  Residents living along the park boundaries report frequent sighting and on occasion will hear their evening howling. More coyotes are present in the 3,000 acre Forest Park located in northwest Portland.

Why Are They Here?

Humans are creating more and more ideal coyote habitat every day! Coyotes have been expanding their range over the past 100 hundred years. Although coyotes have been in Oregon for many years they are relatively new to places such as Portland. Coyotes prefer grasslands and living at the edges of forests. Urban development and farmland create new habitats. Railroad lines, hydro-wire corridors and highways provide the pathways for coyotes to travel.  

It is not surprising that the coyote does well in an urban environment. They are a "generalist species" meaning they can adapt to new places as long as there is enough food and shelter. They prefer small animals and cities have plenty! Golf courses, parks, granaries and fields attract the rodents coyotes feed on. The more forest land that is cleared for development, the more habitat space for coyotes, who dont live in dense forest. Also, other predators such as cougars, bears and wolves usually move away from human-occupied areas providing coyotes with an unchallenged food supply.

SW Beaverton-Hillsdale Highway
Suite 100
Portland, Oregon 97221
(503) 297-1033

Web by
Dasan Design
(503) 819-0011
Fax (503) 224-9083

Susan Marthens
Real Estate Broker, GRI
(503) 497-2984
Fax (503) 220-1131

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