January 20004 Newsletter

by Susan Marthens
 Contributors Gail Mann and Teresa Kirsch
 

In This Issue

1. Portland Home Market - November 2003 Residential Highlights

2. Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area - November 2003

3. Long-Term Mortgage Rates

4. Portland Weather

5. New Search Facility

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Portland Home Market

November 2003 Residential Highlights

A slight drop in the number of new listings for the Portland metro area did nothing to stop the feast of closed sales and accepted offers that were reported in November 2003.  Compared to November 2002, November 2003 had 2.8% fewer new listings.  Nevertheless, folks found some residential property to buy.  The number of accepted offers rose by 5.7%.  At the same time, the number of closed sales rose by 9.8%.

Again comparing November 2003 to November 2002, the metro area's inventory of residential listings fell by 0.7 months.  Given the area's 9,291 active residential listings at the end of November and November's rate of sales, inventory would last 4.3 months.

Year-to-Date Trends

Comparing the 2002 and 2003 year-to-date figures, the number of new listings in the Portland metro area climbed by 2.5%.  Pending sales, or accepted offers, exhibited a more dramatic rise of 10.8%.  Closed sales topped each of them with a rise of 13.1%.

Appreciation

To calculate sale price appreciation, prices for the twelve months that ended with November 2003 are compared to prices for the twelve months that ended with November 2002.  Using those time periods, the Portland metro area's average sale price appreciated 5.7% ($221,200 v. $209,300).  Using the same time periods to compare median sale prices shows an appreciation of 5.4% ($185,000 v. $175,500).

Cost of Residential Homes in the Portland Metro Area

For Period November 2003

New Year Brings Slightly Higher Fixed Mortgage Rates

January 1, 2004

In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 0.7 point, for the week ending January 2, 2004, up just a few basis points from 5.81 percent last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.85 percent.

The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 5.15 percent, with an average 0.7 point, up slightly from last week's average of 5.13 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.24 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 3.72 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down very slightly from 3.73 percent last week. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 4.06 percent.

(Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.)

ARMs Almost One-Third of Mortgage Market

"The yield curve, at its steepest annual level since 1992, is indicative of a favorable ARM market," said Amy Crews, Freddie Mac deputy chief economist. "We have already seen the ARM share of applications double from January to December of this year, and it now represents almost a third of the market.

"With the Federal Reserve on hold until at least June, the yield curve should continue to be steep and once we begin to see signs of inflation, it may well become ever steeper, at least until the Fed raises short-term rates. Until then, the savvy homebuyer or refinancer has the option of lowering monthly mortgage payments by choosing one of the many ARM products available today."

Portland Area Mortgage Rates

In early December, Washington Mutual Bank was offering 6.13 percent for a 30-year FRM (APR of 6.16 percent) with zero points. Another lender, US Bank's rate was 6.00 for a 30-year FRM (APR OF 6.14 percent). Both of these rates are for a $150,000 loan with 20% down.

You can learn more about mortgages by visiting Professor Guttentag Web site. To check on local mortgage rates go to Bankrate.

Portland Weather

Tracking the Moisture and Sunshine

Portland's rainfall is measured according to the "water year" which is from October 1 through the end of September.  Since we receive only a few inches in the summer months, the rain months are from October through May.  Almost half of Portland's annual rainfall falls in November, December, and January. 
 

Water Year:  Measurements From Portland Airport Weather Station

Snowiest Winter in Years!

And it isn't over yet.  As predicted, 2 to 4 inches of snow blanketed the Portland area Tuesday night and Wednesday (December 30 and 31). By late afternoon Wednesday, 3.7 inches of snow had fallen at the National Weather Service office in Northeast Portland. With the half-inch that fell Monday (December 29), 4.2 inches was the most snow recorded for a single month in Portland since February 1993, when 6.6 inches fell. By late Wednesday morning, the snow had turned to rain in downtown Portland but continued to pile up at higher elevations and closer to the gorge.

But the official record doesn't tell the entire story because the National Weather Service office is in Northeast Portland and at a low elevation.  It was an entirely different story at higher elevations. On Monday, some parts of the West Hills got 7", Salem got 6" and Oregon City 5.5." Moving toward the Coast Range, Buxton recorded 13", while in the shadows of Mount Hood, Government Camp got 28" and Timberline 42".

More Snow Falling on New Year's Day

As I write the monthly newsletter on New Year's Day morning, the snow started falling about 8 a.m.  Forecasts are for 1-3 inches and we already have this amount by late morning and it's still snowing. This snow is blanketing the entire metro area and kids from all over the city are having a great time with their sleds.  The radio tells us that the city is closing some of the more steep roads because of slippery conditions. Forecast call for more snow this coming weekend. 

Checking the snow charts in the Cascades each morning, just about every day they report a few inches and occasionally it hits double digits.  Timberline Lodge, located on Mt. Hood, has 132 inches of snow at the lodge (elevation 6,000 feet) at the end of 2003.  Predictions are for another 2-3 feet in the next few days.

New Search Facility

We had hoped to announce, in this month's newsletter, a new home search facility at the movingtoportland.net Web site but we still are working on its implementation. 

Besides the typical search criteria of home type (detached single-family, condo, town home, multi-family), price range, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, you will be able to search by:

• Square footage (minimum and maximum)

• Year built

• Acres - lot size

• Days on the market

• Home style (multiple selections allow)

• View (mountain, city, river, lake, golf course, etc.)

• Features (pool, shop, deck, greenhouse)

Search by Geographic Area

This powerful search tool will allow you to search by geographic areas such as neighborhoods and communities.  Working off a map of the Portland metro area, you simply click and hold down your left mouse button and drag a box over the area you would like to search, then release the button. The map will then zoom in.  You repeat until the map shows the area you would like to search and then add any additional search criteria and click the "Start Search" button.

Plans called for the facility to be fully operational by January 9th.  I'll send you an e-mail when it becomes available. 

Happy New Year!